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Leo Au v Abdul Malik Khan (Sat 03 Nov 2018)

Match won by Leo Au. Result: 11-6,11-8,11-3.

Starting level for Leo Au: 37,491, level confidence: 51%.
Starting level for Abdul Malik Khan: 9,136, level confidence: 57%.
Leo Au to win as he is currently playing 310% better than Abdul Malik Khan.

Leo Au won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 94% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Leo Au played 94% better than Abdul Malik Khan in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Leo Au was taking it easy by anything up to 35%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 15,701 and 37,491 without affecting his level.

In this case, Leo Au played at level 20,743 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Leo Au would normally have been playing at level 24,262 (based on typical behaviour), Abdul Malik Khan played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 17%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Leo Au changes to 0% and Abdul Malik Khan changes to +7.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Leo Au becomes 0% and for Abdul Malik Khan becomes +2.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Balochistan International League' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Leo Au: 71%, Abdul Malik Khan: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Leo Au: 49%, Abdul Malik Khan: 52%.

Final level for Leo Au: 37,491, level confidence: 49%.
Final level for Abdul Malik Khan: 9,369, level confidence: 52%.