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Declan James v Farhan Mehboob (Sun 04 Nov 2018)

Match won by Declan James. Result: 11-9,10-12,11-4,11-8.

Starting level for Declan James: 41,850, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for Farhan Mehboob: 29,652, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Declan James to win as he is currently playing 41% better than Farhan Mehboob.

Declan James won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 30% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Declan James played 27% better than Farhan Mehboob in this match.

As Declan James has played below his allowed range at 38,213, his level reduction is 1.7% before damping. On the assumption that Declan James would normally have been playing at level 40,323 (based on typical behaviour), Farhan Mehboob played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3.6%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.4% and 3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Declan James changes to -1.3% and Farhan Mehboob changes to +3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Declan James becomes -0.5% and for Farhan Mehboob becomes +1.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Balochistan International League' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Declan James: 88%, Farhan Mehboob: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Declan James: 84%, Farhan Mehboob: 80%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Declan James: 41,495, level confidence: 84%.
Final level for Farhan Mehboob: 30,115, level confidence: 80%.