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Leo Au v Nafizwan Adnan (Wed 07 Nov 2018)

Match won by Leo Au. Result: 11-4,8-11,11-7,9-11,11-8.

Starting level for Leo Au: 38,637, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for Nafizwan Adnan: 36,952, level confidence: 61%.
Leo Au to win as he is currently playing 5% better than Nafizwan Adnan.

Leo Au won 60% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 22% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Leo Au played 13% better than Nafizwan Adnan in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Leo Au actually played at a level of 40,164 and Nafizwan Adnan at a level of 35,547. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Leo Au changes to +3% and Nafizwan Adnan changes to -3.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Leo Au becomes +1.1% and for Nafizwan Adnan becomes -1.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Balochistan International League' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Leo Au: 89%, Nafizwan Adnan: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Leo Au: 86%, Nafizwan Adnan: 75%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Leo Au: 39,024, level confidence: 86%.
Final level for Nafizwan Adnan: 36,555, level confidence: 75%.