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Lyell Fuller v David Mill (Wed 14 Nov 2018)

Match won by Lyell Fuller. Result: 11-6,11-2,11-7.

Starting level for Lyell Fuller: 23,019, level confidence: 59%.
Starting level for David Mill: 6,030, level confidence: 46%.
Lyell Fuller to win as he is currently playing 282% better than David Mill.

Lyell Fuller won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lyell Fuller played 120% better than David Mill in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Lyell Fuller was taking it easy by anything up to 33%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 10,422 and 23,019 without affecting his level.

In this case, Lyell Fuller played at level 14,334 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Lyell Fuller would normally have been playing at level 15,489 (based on typical behaviour), David Mill played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 8.1%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lyell Fuller changes to 0% and David Mill changes to +4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lyell Fuller becomes 0% and for David Mill becomes +2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Simon Warder Memorial Prostate Cancer Tournament' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lyell Fuller: 77%, David Mill: 68%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lyell Fuller: 58%, David Mill: 51%.

Final level for Lyell Fuller: 23,019, level confidence: 58%.
Final level for David Mill: 6,148, level confidence: 51%.