Mahesh Mangaonkar v Robin Gadola (Thu 15 Nov 2018)
Match won by Mahesh Mangaonkar. Result: 11-6,11-2,11-8.
Starting level for
Mahesh Mangaonkar:
34,151, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for
Robin Gadola:
21,880, level confidence: 68%.
Mahesh Mangaonkar to win as he is currently playing
56% better than Robin Gadola.
Mahesh Mangaonkar won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mahesh Mangaonkar played
106% better than Robin Gadola in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mahesh Mangaonkar actually played at a level of
39,257 and Robin Gadola at a level of
19,034. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 15% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 12% and 12% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mahesh Mangaonkar changes to +12% and Robin Gadola changes to -12%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mahesh Mangaonkar becomes +2.8% and for Robin Gadola becomes -3%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Brussels Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mahesh Mangaonkar: 82%, Robin Gadola: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mahesh Mangaonkar: 71%, Robin Gadola: 72%.
A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Mahesh Mangaonkar:
34,904, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Robin Gadola:
21,436, level confidence: 72%.