Henrik Mustonen v Lyell Fuller (Thu 15 Nov 2018)
Match won by Henrik Mustonen. Result: 9-11,11-9,8-11,11-3,11-1.
Starting level for
Henrik Mustonen:
27,705, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Lyell Fuller:
23,055, level confidence: 58%.
Henrik Mustonen to win as he is currently playing
20% better than Lyell Fuller.
Henrik Mustonen won 60% of the games and 59% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 43% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Henrik Mustonen played
18% better than Lyell Fuller in this match.
In this case, Henrik Mustonen played at level 27,334 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Lyell Fuller is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Henrik Mustonen changes to 0% and Lyell Fuller changes to 0%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Henrik Mustonen becomes 0% and for Lyell Fuller becomes 0%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Simon Warder Memorial Prostate Cancer Tournament' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Henrik Mustonen: 84%, Lyell Fuller: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Henrik Mustonen: 84%, Lyell Fuller: 76%.
A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Henrik Mustonen:
27,678, level confidence: 84%.
Final level for Lyell Fuller:
23,216, level confidence: 76%.