Mahesh Mangaonkar v Carlos Cornes (Fri 16 Nov 2018)
Match won by Mahesh Mangaonkar. Result: 11-6,14-12,11-4.
Starting level for
Mahesh Mangaonkar:
34,839, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Carlos Cornes:
27,784, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Mahesh Mangaonkar to win as he is currently playing
25% better than Carlos Cornes.
Mahesh Mangaonkar won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 64% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mahesh Mangaonkar played
64% better than Carlos Cornes in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mahesh Mangaonkar actually played at a level of
39,799 and Carlos Cornes at a level of
24,321. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 14% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 13% and 13% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mahesh Mangaonkar changes to +13% and Carlos Cornes changes to -11%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mahesh Mangaonkar becomes +3% and for Carlos Cornes becomes -2.8%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Brussels Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mahesh Mangaonkar: 84%, Carlos Cornes: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mahesh Mangaonkar: 74%, Carlos Cornes: 78%.
A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Mahesh Mangaonkar:
35,730, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Carlos Cornes:
27,206, level confidence: 78%.