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Mahesh Mangaonkar v Jan Van Den Herrewegen (Sat 17 Nov 2018)

Match won by Mahesh Mangaonkar. Result: 11-6,6-11,11-8,4-11,13-11.

Starting level for Mahesh Mangaonkar: 35,881, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for Jan Van Den Herrewegen: 27,091, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Mahesh Mangaonkar to win as he is currently playing 32% better than Jan Van Den Herrewegen.

Mahesh Mangaonkar won 60% of the games and 49% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 4% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mahesh Mangaonkar played 6% better than Jan Van Den Herrewegen in this match.

As Mahesh Mangaonkar has played below his allowed range at 31,349, his level reduction is 8.7% before damping. On the assumption that Mahesh Mangaonkar would normally have been playing at level 34,970 (based on typical behaviour), Jan Van Den Herrewegen played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 10.1%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 7.5% and 8.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mahesh Mangaonkar changes to -7.5% and Jan Van Den Herrewegen changes to +7.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mahesh Mangaonkar becomes -2% and for Jan Van Den Herrewegen becomes +2.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Brussels Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mahesh Mangaonkar: 86%, Jan Van Den Herrewegen: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mahesh Mangaonkar: 77%, Jan Van Den Herrewegen: 82%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mahesh Mangaonkar: 35,219, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Jan Van Den Herrewegen: 27,753, level confidence: 82%.