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Ryan Picken v Patrick Rooney (Tue 13 Nov 2018)

Match won by Patrick Rooney. Result: 10-12,10-12,5-11.

Starting level for Ryan Picken: 10,768, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Patrick Rooney: 29,976, level confidence: 58%.
Patrick Rooney to win as he is currently playing 178% better than Ryan Picken.

Patrick Rooney won all of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 40% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Patrick Rooney played 45% better than Ryan Picken in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Patrick Rooney was taking it easy by anything up to 22%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 17,149 and 29,976 without affecting his level.

As Patrick Rooney has played below his allowed range at 16,361, his level reduction is 4.8% before damping. On the assumption that Patrick Rooney would normally have been playing at level 23,387 (based on typical behaviour), Ryan Picken played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 22%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.9% and 13% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Patrick Rooney changes to -2.9% and Ryan Picken changes to +10%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Patrick Rooney becomes -1.1% and for Ryan Picken becomes +3.1%.

Given Patrick Rooney's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 55% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Given Ryan Picken's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 19% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'NW Counties Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Patrick Rooney is -0.6% and for Ryan Picken is +2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Patrick Rooney: 76%, Ryan Picken: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Patrick Rooney: 55%, Ryan Picken: 62%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ryan Picken: 10,963, level confidence: 62%.
Final level for Patrick Rooney: 29,767, level confidence: 55%.