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Patrick Rooney v Michael Andrews (Tue 20 Nov 2018)

Match won by Patrick Rooney. Result: 11-6,11-5,11-6.

Starting level for Patrick Rooney: 29,871, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for Michael Andrews: 12,084, level confidence: 61%.
Patrick Rooney to win as he is currently playing 147% better than Michael Andrews.

Patrick Rooney won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 94% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Patrick Rooney played 94% better than Michael Andrews in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Patrick Rooney was taking it easy by anything up to 18%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 18,952 and 29,871 without affecting his level.

In this case, Patrick Rooney played at level 23,925 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Patrick Rooney would normally have been playing at level 24,402 (based on typical behaviour), Michael Andrews played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Patrick Rooney changes to 0% and Michael Andrews changes to +1.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Patrick Rooney becomes 0% and for Michael Andrews becomes +0.6%.

Given Michael Andrews's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 23% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'NW Counties Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Patrick Rooney is 0% and for Michael Andrews is +0.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Patrick Rooney: 78%, Michael Andrews: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Patrick Rooney: 69%, Michael Andrews: 69%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Patrick Rooney: 29,826, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Michael Andrews: 12,111, level confidence: 69%.