Jack Lawrence v Doug Chandler (Tue 20 Nov 2018)
Match won by Doug Chandler. Result: 6-11,9-11,9-11.
Starting level for
Jack Lawrence:
2,164, level confidence: 52%.
Starting level for
Doug Chandler:
2,105, level confidence: 66%.
Jack Lawrence to win as he is currently playing
3% better than Doug Chandler.
Doug Chandler won all of the games and 58% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 38% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Doug Chandler played
43% better than Jack Lawrence in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Doug Chandler actually played at a level of
2,555 and Jack Lawrence at a level of
1,783. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 21% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Doug Chandler changes to +17% and Jack Lawrence changes to -21%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Doug Chandler becomes +7.2% and for Jack Lawrence becomes -8.6%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hampshire Mens League 2018/2019' so the adjustment for Doug Chandler is +5.4% and for Jack Lawrence is -6.3%.
Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Jack Lawrence is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Doug Chandler: 81%, Jack Lawrence: 72%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Doug Chandler: 67%, Jack Lawrence: 59%.
A final adjustment of +0.8% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Jack Lawrence:
2,095, level confidence: 59%.
Final level for Doug Chandler:
2,215, level confidence: 67%.