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Oliver Pett v Charlie Lee (Wed 21 Nov 2018)

Match won by Oliver Pett. Result: 11-3,8-11,11-7,12-10.

Starting level for Oliver Pett: 21,965, level confidence: 70%.
Starting level for Charlie Lee: 28,085, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Charlie Lee to win as he is currently playing 28% better than Oliver Pett.

Oliver Pett won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 35% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Oliver Pett played 28% better than Charlie Lee in this match. An upset!

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Oliver Pett actually played at a level of 28,151 and Charlie Lee at a level of 21,914. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 28% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 25% and 25% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Oliver Pett changes to +25% and Charlie Lee changes to -23%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Oliver Pett becomes +5.5% and for Charlie Lee becomes -5%.

Given Oliver Pett's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 43% has been applied to his level change.

Given Charlie Lee's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 52% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Oliver Pett is +2.9% and for Charlie Lee is -2.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Oliver Pett: 83%, Charlie Lee: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Oliver Pett: 65%, Charlie Lee: 67%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Oliver Pett: 22,568, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for Charlie Lee: 27,394, level confidence: 67%.