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Tiago Goriely v James Peach (Wed 21 Nov 2018)

Match won by James Peach. Result: 11-9,5-11,11-7,6-11,9-11.

Starting level for Tiago Goriely: 13,349, level confidence: 48%.
Starting level for James Peach: 16,138, level confidence: 54%.
James Peach to win as he is currently playing 21% better than Tiago Goriely.

James Peach won 60% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 17% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Peach played 12% better than Tiago Goriely in this match.

As James Peach has played below his allowed range at 15,312, his level reduction is 2.7% before damping. On the assumption that James Peach would normally have been playing at level 15,955 (based on typical behaviour), Tiago Goriely played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3.5%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Peach changes to -2.2% and Tiago Goriely changes to +3.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Peach becomes -1% and for Tiago Goriely becomes +1.4%.

Given James Peach's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 32% has been applied to his level change.

Given Tiago Goriely's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 26% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for James Peach is -0.6% and for Tiago Goriely is +0.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Peach: 74%, Tiago Goriely: 70%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Peach: 71%, Tiago Goriely: 67%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tiago Goriely: 13,443, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for James Peach: 16,024, level confidence: 71%.