Jeremy Harris v Scott Handley (Wed 21 Nov 2018)
Match won by Scott Handley. Result: 10-12,11-5,8-11,11-7,7-11.
Starting level for
Jeremy Harris:
11,214, level confidence: 51%.
Starting level for
Scott Handley:
15,933, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Scott Handley to win as he is currently playing
42% better than Jeremy Harris.
Scott Handley won 60% of the games and 49% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was worse by around 2% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Scott Handley played
7% better than Jeremy Harris in this match.
As Scott Handley has played below his allowed range at 13,240, his level reduction is 10.4% before damping. On the assumption that Scott Handley would normally have been playing at level 15,332 (based on typical behaviour), Jeremy Harris played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 13%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 8.6% and 10.8% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Scott Handley changes to -5% and Jeremy Harris changes to +10.8%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Scott Handley becomes -1.8% and for Jeremy Harris becomes +3.3%.
Given Scott Handley's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 31% has been applied to his level change.
Given Jeremy Harris's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 20% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Scott Handley is -1% and for Jeremy Harris is +2%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Scott Handley: 92%, Jeremy Harris: 71%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Scott Handley: 80%, Jeremy Harris: 62%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Jeremy Harris:
11,427, level confidence: 62%.
Final level for Scott Handley:
15,747, level confidence: 80%.