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Joel Preece v James Peach (Thu 22 Nov 2018)

Match won by James Peach. Result: 8-11,7-11,3-11.

Starting level for Joel Preece: 5,694, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for James Peach: 16,006, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
James Peach to win as he is currently playing 181% better than Joel Preece.

James Peach won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Peach played 83% better than Joel Preece in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that James Peach was taking it easy by anything up to 22%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 9,075 and 16,006 without affecting his level.

In this case, James Peach played at level 11,395 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that James Peach would normally have been playing at level 12,438 (based on typical behaviour), Joel Preece played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 9.2%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 5.4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Peach changes to 0% and Joel Preece changes to +4.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Peach becomes 0% and for Joel Preece becomes +2.2%.

Given Joel Preece's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 2.9% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Winter 2018' so the adjustment for James Peach is 0% and for Joel Preece is +1.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Peach: 84%, Joel Preece: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Peach: 68%, Joel Preece: 71%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Joel Preece: 5,778, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for James Peach: 15,982, level confidence: 68%.