Oliver Pett v Charlie Lee (Thu 22 Nov 2018)
Match won by Oliver Pett. Result: 10-12,11-7,11-3,11-8.
Starting level for
Oliver Pett:
22,419, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for
Charlie Lee:
27,219, level confidence: 66%.
Charlie Lee to win as he is currently playing
21% better than Oliver Pett.
Oliver Pett won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 43% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Oliver Pett played
31% better than Charlie Lee in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Oliver Pett actually played at a level of
28,279 and Charlie Lee at a level of
21,579. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 26% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Oliver Pett changes to +23% and Charlie Lee changes to -23%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Oliver Pett becomes +5.2% and for Charlie Lee becomes -5%.
Given Oliver Pett's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 43% has been applied to his level change.
Given Charlie Lee's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 51% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hampshire Mens League 2018/2019' so the adjustment for Oliver Pett is +2.7% and for Charlie Lee is -2.4%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Oliver Pett: 81%, Charlie Lee: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Oliver Pett: 64%, Charlie Lee: 65%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Oliver Pett:
23,000, level confidence: 64%.
Final level for Charlie Lee:
26,540, level confidence: 65%.