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Adrian Waller v Peter Creed (Tue 20 Nov 2018)

Match won by Adrian Waller. Result: 11-3,11-7,11-5.

Starting level for Adrian Waller: 38,145, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Starting level for Peter Creed: 27,339, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Adrian Waller to win as he is currently playing 40% better than Peter Creed.

Adrian Waller won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Adrian Waller played 120% better than Peter Creed in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Adrian Waller actually played at a level of 47,898 and Peter Creed at a level of 21,772. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 26% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 21% and 21% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Adrian Waller changes to +20% and Peter Creed changes to -21%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Adrian Waller becomes +4.1% and for Peter Creed becomes -4.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Hong Kong Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Adrian Waller: 89%, Peter Creed: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Adrian Waller: 71%, Peter Creed: 69%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Adrian Waller: 39,469, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Peter Creed: 26,386, level confidence: 69%.