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Mike Harris v Sam Todd (Tue 20 Nov 2018)

Match won by Mike Harris. Result: 11-8,11-5,7-11,11-8.

Starting level for Mike Harris: 18,804, level confidence: 56%.
Starting level for Sam Todd: 18,055, level confidence: 68%.
Mike Harris to win as he is currently playing 4% better than Sam Todd.

Mike Harris won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 25% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mike Harris played 25% better than Sam Todd in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mike Harris actually played at a level of 20,601 and Sam Todd at a level of 16,480. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 9.6% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mike Harris changes to +9.4% and Sam Todd changes to -7.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mike Harris becomes +2.7% and for Sam Todd becomes -2.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Sutton Coldfield International' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mike Harris: 75%, Sam Todd: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mike Harris: 68%, Sam Todd: 75%.

Final level for Mike Harris: 19,302, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Sam Todd: 17,647, level confidence: 75%.