Mike Harris v Sam Todd (Tue 20 Nov 2018)
Match won by Mike Harris. Result: 11-8,11-5,7-11,11-8.
Starting level for
Mike Harris:
18,804, level confidence: 56%.
Starting level for
Sam Todd:
18,055, level confidence: 68%.
Mike Harris to win as he is currently playing
4% better than Sam Todd.
Mike Harris won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 25% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mike Harris played
25% better than Sam Todd in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mike Harris actually played at a level of
20,601 and Sam Todd at a level of
16,480. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 9.6% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mike Harris changes to +9.4% and Sam Todd changes to -7.5%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mike Harris becomes +2.7% and for Sam Todd becomes -2.3%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Sutton Coldfield International' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mike Harris: 75%, Sam Todd: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mike Harris: 68%, Sam Todd: 75%.
Final level for Mike Harris:
19,302, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Sam Todd:
17,647, level confidence: 75%.