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Paul Coll v Leo Au (Wed 21 Nov 2018)

Match won by Paul Coll. Result: 7-11,11-3,11-9,11-6.

Starting level for Paul Coll: 54,090, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Leo Au: 38,833, level confidence: 87%. Set manually.
Paul Coll to win as he is currently playing 39% better than Leo Au.

Paul Coll won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 38% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Coll played 29% better than Leo Au in this match.

As Paul Coll has played below his allowed range at 50,332, his level reduction is 0% before damping. On the assumption that Paul Coll would normally have been playing at level 52,246 (based on typical behaviour), Leo Au played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Coll changes to 0% and Leo Au changes to +1.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Coll becomes -0.1% and for Leo Au becomes +0.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Hong Kong Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Coll: 84%, Leo Au: 93%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Coll: 81%, Leo Au: 90%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Paul Coll: 53,817, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Leo Au: 39,250, level confidence: 90%.