Jan Van Den Herrewegen v Mike Harris (Wed 21 Nov 2018)
Match won by Jan Van Den Herrewegen. Result: 14-12,11-4,12-10.
Starting level for
Jan Van Den Herrewegen:
27,660, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Mike Harris:
19,373, level confidence: 68%.
Jan Van Den Herrewegen to win as he is currently playing
43% better than Mike Harris.
Jan Van Den Herrewegen won all of the games and 59% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 42% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jan Van Den Herrewegen played
46% better than Mike Harris in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jan Van Den Herrewegen actually played at a level of
28,018 and Mike Harris at a level of
19,125. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.3% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.1% and 1.1% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jan Van Den Herrewegen changes to +0.9% and Mike Harris changes to -1.1%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jan Van Den Herrewegen becomes +0.4% and for Mike Harris becomes -0.5%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Sutton Coldfield International' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jan Van Den Herrewegen: 90%, Mike Harris: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jan Van Den Herrewegen: 88%, Mike Harris: 81%.
Final level for Jan Van Den Herrewegen:
27,764, level confidence: 88%.
Final level for Mike Harris:
19,282, level confidence: 81%.