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Patrick Rooney v Owain Taylor (Wed 21 Nov 2018)

Match won by Patrick Rooney. Result: 11-5,4-11,11-6,11-4.

Starting level for Patrick Rooney: 29,826, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for Owain Taylor: 16,696, level confidence: 87%. Set manually.
Patrick Rooney to win as he is currently playing 79% better than Owain Taylor.

Patrick Rooney won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 42% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Patrick Rooney played 31% better than Owain Taylor in this match.

As Patrick Rooney has played below his allowed range at 23,230, his level reduction is 6.4% before damping. On the assumption that Patrick Rooney would normally have been playing at level 27,158 (based on typical behaviour), Owain Taylor played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 12%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.8% and 8.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Patrick Rooney changes to -4.8% and Owain Taylor changes to +6.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Patrick Rooney becomes -1.6% and for Owain Taylor becomes +2.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Sutton Coldfield International' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Patrick Rooney: 83%, Owain Taylor: 93%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Patrick Rooney: 71%, Owain Taylor: 80%.

Final level for Patrick Rooney: 29,364, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Owain Taylor: 17,056, level confidence: 80%.