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Stuart Macgregor v Mohammad Alsarraj (Wed 21 Nov 2018)

Match won by Stuart Macgregor. Result: 14-12,11-13,11-8,7-11,11-6.

Starting level for Stuart Macgregor: 18,204, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Mohammad Alsarraj: 21,839, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Mohammad Alsarraj to win as he is currently playing 20% better than Stuart Macgregor.

Stuart Macgregor won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 8% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Stuart Macgregor played 10% better than Mohammad Alsarraj in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Stuart Macgregor actually played at a level of 20,864 and Mohammad Alsarraj at a level of 19,054. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 15% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Stuart Macgregor changes to +13% and Mohammad Alsarraj changes to -12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Stuart Macgregor becomes +3.5% and for Mohammad Alsarraj becomes -3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Czech Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Stuart Macgregor: 87%, Mohammad Alsarraj: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Stuart Macgregor: 75%, Mohammad Alsarraj: 80%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Stuart Macgregor: 18,835, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Mohammad Alsarraj: 21,194, level confidence: 80%.