Victor Crouin v Harry Falconer (Thu 22 Nov 2018)
Match won by Victor Crouin. Result: 11-5,11-5,11-7.
Starting level for
Victor Crouin:
32,008, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Harry Falconer:
16,669, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Victor Crouin to win as he is currently playing
92% better than Harry Falconer.
Victor Crouin won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 94% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Victor Crouin played
94% better than Harry Falconer in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Victor Crouin actually played at a level of
32,182 and Harry Falconer at a level of
16,579. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.5% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.4% and 0.4% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Victor Crouin changes to +0.4% and Harry Falconer changes to -0.4%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Victor Crouin becomes +0.1% and for Harry Falconer becomes 0%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Sutton Coldfield International' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Victor Crouin: 87%, Harry Falconer: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Victor Crouin: 86%, Harry Falconer: 83%.
Final level for Victor Crouin:
32,055, level confidence: 86%.
Final level for Harry Falconer:
16,640, level confidence: 83%.