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Stuart Macgregor v Dan Haggarty (Mon 26 Nov 2018)

Match won by Stuart Macgregor. Result: 11-4,11-8,11-6.

Starting level for Stuart Macgregor: 17,968, level confidence: 54%.
Starting level for Dan Haggarty: 5,128, level confidence: 86%. Set manually.
Stuart Macgregor to win as he is currently playing 250% better than Dan Haggarty.

Stuart Macgregor won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Stuart Macgregor played 83% better than Dan Haggarty in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Stuart Macgregor was taking it easy by anything up to 30%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 8,132 and 17,968 without affecting his level.

In this case, Stuart Macgregor played at level 10,898 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Stuart Macgregor would normally have been playing at level 12,632 (based on typical behaviour), Dan Haggarty played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 16%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 8.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Stuart Macgregor changes to 0% and Dan Haggarty changes to +5.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Stuart Macgregor becomes 0% and for Dan Haggarty becomes +2.4%.

Given Dan Haggarty's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 0.6% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Warwickshire Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Stuart Macgregor is 0% and for Dan Haggarty is +1.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Stuart Macgregor: 73%, Dan Haggarty: 93%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Stuart Macgregor: 53%, Dan Haggarty: 67%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Stuart Macgregor: 18,003, level confidence: 53%.
Final level for Dan Haggarty: 5,228, level confidence: 67%.