Scott Handley v Anthony Rogal (Wed 28 Nov 2018)
Match won by Scott Handley. Result: 11-13,11-5,11-9,7-11,12-10.
Starting level for
Scott Handley:
15,751, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Anthony Rogal:
13,231, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Scott Handley to win as he is currently playing
19% better than Anthony Rogal.
Scott Handley won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 8% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Scott Handley played
10% better than Anthony Rogal in this match.
As Scott Handley has played below his allowed range at 14,956, his level reduction is 3.2% before damping. On the assumption that Scott Handley would normally have been playing at level 15,606 (based on typical behaviour), Anthony Rogal played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3.7%.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Scott Handley changes to -2.8% and Anthony Rogal changes to +3.4%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Scott Handley becomes -1.3% and for Anthony Rogal becomes +1.5%.
Given Scott Handley's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 31% has been applied to his level change.
Given Anthony Rogal's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 25% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Scott Handley is -0.7% and for Anthony Rogal is +0.9%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Scott Handley: 90%, Anthony Rogal: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Scott Handley: 86%, Anthony Rogal: 85%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Scott Handley:
15,615, level confidence: 86%.
Final level for Anthony Rogal:
13,330, level confidence: 85%.