Adam Taylor v Harry Falconer (Wed 28 Nov 2018)
Match won by Harry Falconer. Result: 4-11,10-12,2-11.
Starting level for
Adam Taylor:
12,952, level confidence: 62%.
Starting level for
Harry Falconer:
16,638, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Harry Falconer to win as he is currently playing
28% better than Adam Taylor.
Harry Falconer won all of the games and 68% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 113% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Harry Falconer played
113% better than Adam Taylor in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Harry Falconer actually played at a level of
21,399 and Adam Taylor at a level of
10,070. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 29% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 25% and 25% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Harry Falconer changes to +19% and Adam Taylor changes to -25%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Harry Falconer becomes +4.7% and for Adam Taylor becomes -6.2%.
Given Harry Falconer's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 33% has been applied to his level change.
Given Adam Taylor's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 25% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Yorkshire Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Harry Falconer is +2.6% and for Adam Taylor is -3.6%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Harry Falconer: 90%, Adam Taylor: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Harry Falconer: 70%, Adam Taylor: 61%.
A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Adam Taylor:
12,532, level confidence: 61%.
Final level for Harry Falconer:
17,119, level confidence: 70%.