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Kieran Wardman v Stuart Macgregor (Wed 28 Nov 2018)

Match won by Stuart Macgregor. Result: 8-11,8-11,7-11.

Starting level for Kieran Wardman: 6,778, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Stuart Macgregor: 17,983, level confidence: 53%.
Stuart Macgregor to win as he is currently playing 165% better than Kieran Wardman.

Stuart Macgregor won all of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 43% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Stuart Macgregor played 47% better than Kieran Wardman in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Stuart Macgregor was taking it easy by anything up to 20%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 10,743 and 17,983 without affecting his level.

As Stuart Macgregor has played below his allowed range at 10,356, his level reduction is 3.7% before damping. On the assumption that Stuart Macgregor would normally have been playing at level 14,303 (based on typical behaviour), Kieran Wardman played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 20%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.3% and 12% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Stuart Macgregor changes to -2.3% and Kieran Wardman changes to +8.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Stuart Macgregor becomes -1% and for Kieran Wardman becomes +3.1%.

Given Stuart Macgregor's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 35% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Given Kieran Wardman's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 7% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Yorkshire Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Stuart Macgregor is -0.6% and for Kieran Wardman is +2.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Stuart Macgregor: 73%, Kieran Wardman: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Stuart Macgregor: 54%, Kieran Wardman: 63%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Kieran Wardman: 6,941, level confidence: 63%.
Final level for Stuart Macgregor: 17,929, level confidence: 54%.