Taminder Gata-Aura v James Peach (Sat 01 Dec 2018)
Match won by James Peach. Result: 12-10,8-11,13-15,9-11.
Starting level for
Taminder Gata-Aura:
12,092, level confidence: 90%. Set manually.
Starting level for
James Peach:
16,614, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
James Peach to win as he is currently playing
37% better than Taminder Gata-Aura.
James Peach won 75% of the games and 53% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 12% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Peach played
21% better than Taminder Gata-Aura in this match.
As James Peach has played below his allowed range at 15,024, his level reduction is 3% before damping. On the assumption that James Peach would normally have been playing at level 16,088 (based on typical behaviour), Taminder Gata-Aura played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.5% and 4.2% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Peach changes to -2.5% and Taminder Gata-Aura changes to +3.5%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Peach becomes -1.1% and for Taminder Gata-Aura becomes +1.5%.
Given James Peach's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 33% has been applied to his level change.
Given Taminder Gata-Aura's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 23% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 78% for 'BUCS Individual Championships 2018' so the adjustment for James Peach is -0.7% and for Taminder Gata-Aura is +1%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Peach: 86%, Taminder Gata-Aura: 95%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Peach: 81%, Taminder Gata-Aura: 89%.
Final level for Taminder Gata-Aura:
12,211, level confidence: 89%.
Final level for James Peach:
16,505, level confidence: 81%.