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Oliver Pett v James Peach (Fri 30 Nov 2018)

Match won by Oliver Pett. Result: 14-12,6-11,11-6,13-11.

Starting level for Oliver Pett: 23,150, level confidence: 62%.
Starting level for James Peach: 16,560, level confidence: 64%.
Oliver Pett to win as he is currently playing 40% better than James Peach.

Oliver Pett won 75% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 10% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Oliver Pett played 20% better than James Peach in this match.

As Oliver Pett has played below his allowed range at 20,627, his level reduction is 3.8% before damping. On the assumption that Oliver Pett would normally have been playing at level 22,346 (based on typical behaviour), James Peach played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 6%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.2% and 5.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Oliver Pett changes to -3.2% and James Peach changes to +4.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Oliver Pett becomes -1.3% and for James Peach becomes +1.8%.

Given Oliver Pett's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 45% has been applied to his level change.

Given James Peach's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 33% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 78% for 'BUCS Individual Championships 2018' so the adjustment for Oliver Pett is -0.7% and for James Peach is +1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Oliver Pett: 79%, James Peach: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Oliver Pett: 73%, James Peach: 74%.

A final adjustment of -0.5% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Oliver Pett: 22,773, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for James Peach: 16,731, level confidence: 74%.