Stuart Macgregor v Jan Van Den Herrewegen (Sat 01 Dec 2018)
Match won by Jan Van Den Herrewegen. Result: 8-11,4-11,3-11.
Starting level for
Stuart Macgregor:
17,949, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Jan Van Den Herrewegen:
26,975, level confidence: 67%.
Jan Van Den Herrewegen to win as he is currently playing
50% better than Stuart Macgregor.
Jan Van Den Herrewegen won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jan Van Den Herrewegen played
120% better than Stuart Macgregor in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jan Van Den Herrewegen actually played at a level of
32,637 and Stuart Macgregor at a level of
14,835. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 21% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 17% and 17% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jan Van Den Herrewegen changes to +17% and Stuart Macgregor changes to -15%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jan Van Den Herrewegen becomes +3.9% and for Stuart Macgregor becomes -3.9%.
Given Jan Van Den Herrewegen's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 51% has been applied to his level change.
Given Stuart Macgregor's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 35% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 78% for 'BUCS Individual Championships 2018' so the adjustment for Jan Van Den Herrewegen is +2% and for Stuart Macgregor is -2.2%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jan Van Den Herrewegen: 82%, Stuart Macgregor: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jan Van Den Herrewegen: 68%, Stuart Macgregor: 70%.
A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Stuart Macgregor:
17,556, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Jan Van Den Herrewegen:
27,516, level confidence: 68%.