James Peach v Seigo Masuda (Sat 01 Dec 2018)
Match won by James Peach. Result: 11-8,11-5,11-4.
Starting level for
James Peach:
16,510, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Seigo Masuda:
9,650, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
James Peach to win as he is currently playing
71% better than Seigo Masuda.
James Peach won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 94% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Peach played
94% better than Seigo Masuda in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like James Peach actually played at a level of
17,586 and Seigo Masuda at a level of
9,060. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 6.5% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.9% and 4.9% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Peach changes to +4.6% and Seigo Masuda changes to -4.9%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Peach becomes +1.7% and for Seigo Masuda becomes -2%.
Given James Peach's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 33% has been applied to his level change.
Given Seigo Masuda's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 16% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 78% for 'BUCS Individual Championships 2018' so the adjustment for James Peach is +1% and for Seigo Masuda is -1.3%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Peach: 90%, Seigo Masuda: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Peach: 84%, Seigo Masuda: 81%.
Final level for James Peach:
16,674, level confidence: 84%.
Final level for Seigo Masuda:
9,523, level confidence: 81%.