Stuart Macgregor v Lewis Walters (Sun 02 Dec 2018)
Match won by Lewis Walters. Result: 8-11,6-11,11-9,10-12.
Starting level for
Stuart Macgregor:
17,881, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Lewis Walters:
17,458, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Stuart Macgregor to win as he is currently playing
2% better than Lewis Walters.
Lewis Walters won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 23% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lewis Walters played
24% better than Stuart Macgregor in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Lewis Walters actually played at a level of
19,698 and Stuart Macgregor at a level of
15,848. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 13% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lewis Walters changes to +11% and Stuart Macgregor changes to -13%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lewis Walters becomes +3.1% and for Stuart Macgregor becomes -3.4%.
Given Lewis Walters's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 34% has been applied to his level change.
Given Stuart Macgregor's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 35% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 78% for 'BUCS Individual Championships 2018' so the adjustment for Lewis Walters is +1.8% and for Stuart Macgregor is -1.9%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lewis Walters: 91%, Stuart Macgregor: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lewis Walters: 80%, Stuart Macgregor: 76%.
Final level for Stuart Macgregor:
17,544, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Lewis Walters:
17,771, level confidence: 80%.