SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Stuart Macgregor v Lewis Walters (Sun 02 Dec 2018)

Match won by Lewis Walters. Result: 8-11,6-11,11-9,10-12.

Starting level for Stuart Macgregor: 17,881, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for Lewis Walters: 17,458, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Stuart Macgregor to win as he is currently playing 2% better than Lewis Walters.

Lewis Walters won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 23% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lewis Walters played 24% better than Stuart Macgregor in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Lewis Walters actually played at a level of 19,698 and Stuart Macgregor at a level of 15,848. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 13% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lewis Walters changes to +11% and Stuart Macgregor changes to -13%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lewis Walters becomes +3.1% and for Stuart Macgregor becomes -3.4%.

Given Lewis Walters's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 34% has been applied to his level change.

Given Stuart Macgregor's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 35% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 78% for 'BUCS Individual Championships 2018' so the adjustment for Lewis Walters is +1.8% and for Stuart Macgregor is -1.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lewis Walters: 91%, Stuart Macgregor: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lewis Walters: 80%, Stuart Macgregor: 76%.

Final level for Stuart Macgregor: 17,544, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Lewis Walters: 17,771, level confidence: 80%.