Roshan Bharos v James Peach (Sun 02 Dec 2018)
Match won by Roshan Bharos. Result: 11-4,11-9,11-8.
Starting level for
Roshan Bharos:
15,699, level confidence: 44%.
Starting level for
James Peach:
16,657, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
James Peach to win as he is currently playing
6% better than Roshan Bharos.
Roshan Bharos won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Roshan Bharos played
56% better than James Peach in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Roshan Bharos actually played at a level of
20,226 and James Peach at a level of
12,929. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 29% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Roshan Bharos changes to +28% and James Peach changes to -13%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Roshan Bharos becomes +6.5% and for James Peach becomes -3.5%.
Given Roshan Bharos's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 31% has been applied to his level change.
Given James Peach's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 33% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 78% for 'BUCS Individual Championships 2018' so the adjustment for Roshan Bharos is +3.9% and for James Peach is -2%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Roshan Bharos: 67%, James Peach: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Roshan Bharos: 52%, James Peach: 71%.
Final level for Roshan Bharos:
16,305, level confidence: 52%.
Final level for James Peach:
16,327, level confidence: 71%.