SquashLevels calculations
Oliver Rawlins v Stuart Macgregor (Mon 03 Dec 2018)
Match won by Stuart Macgregor. Result: 5-11,7-11,11-9,5-11.
Starting level for
Oliver Rawlins:
12,752, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for
Stuart Macgregor:
17,544, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Stuart Macgregor to win as he is currently playing
38% better than Oliver Rawlins.
Stuart Macgregor won 75% of the games and 60% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Stuart Macgregor played
33% better than Oliver Rawlins in this match.
In this case, Stuart Macgregor played at level 16,992 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Oliver Rawlins is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Stuart Macgregor: 87%, Oliver Rawlins: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Stuart Macgregor: 86%, Oliver Rawlins: 77%.
A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Oliver Rawlins:
12,766, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Stuart Macgregor:
17,564, level confidence: 86%.