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Andy Whipp v Olivia Howell (Tue 04 Dec 2018)

Match won by Andy Whipp. Result: 11-8,11-3,11-4.

Starting level for Andy Whipp: 16,943, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for Olivia Howell: 5,889, level confidence: 57%.
Andy Whipp to win as he is currently playing 188% better than Olivia Howell.

Andy Whipp won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Andy Whipp played 120% better than Olivia Howell in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Andy Whipp was taking it easy by anything up to 23%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 9,399 and 16,943 without affecting his level.

In this case, Andy Whipp played at level 12,998 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Andy Whipp would normally have been playing at level 13,039 (based on typical behaviour), Olivia Howell played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 0.3%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Andy Whipp changes to 0% and Olivia Howell changes to 0%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Andy Whipp becomes 0% and for Olivia Howell becomes 0%.

Given Olivia Howell's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 3.7% has been applied to her level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'NW Counties Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Andy Whipp is 0% and for Olivia Howell is 0%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Andy Whipp: 91%, Olivia Howell: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Andy Whipp: 79%, Olivia Howell: 66%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Andy Whipp: 16,918, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Olivia Howell: 5,885, level confidence: 66%.