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Neil Mallam v Ryan Wright (Wed 05 Dec 2018)

Match won by Ryan Wright. Result: 12-10,10-12,11-8,4-11,5-11.

Starting level for Neil Mallam: 1,514, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for Ryan Wright: 1,923, level confidence: 70%.
Ryan Wright to win as he is currently playing 27% better than Neil Mallam.

Ryan Wright won 60% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 24% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ryan Wright played 13% better than Neil Mallam in this match.

As Ryan Wright has played below his allowed range at 1,779, his level reduction is 3.6% before damping. On the assumption that Ryan Wright would normally have been playing at level 1,887 (based on typical behaviour), Neil Mallam played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 4.8%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.2% and 4.3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ryan Wright changes to -3.2% and Neil Mallam changes to +3.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ryan Wright becomes -2.4% and for Neil Mallam becomes +2.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hampshire Mens League 2018/2019' so the adjustment for Ryan Wright is -1.8% and for Neil Mallam is +2.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ryan Wright: 83%, Neil Mallam: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ryan Wright: 79%, Neil Mallam: 86%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Neil Mallam: 1,543, level confidence: 86%.
Final level for Ryan Wright: 1,886, level confidence: 79%.