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Greg Tippings v James Peach (Thu 06 Dec 2018)

Match won by James Peach. Result: 6-11,12-10,8-11,10-12.

Starting level for Greg Tippings: 12,631, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Starting level for James Peach: 15,303, level confidence: 67%.
James Peach to win as he is currently playing 21% better than Greg Tippings.

James Peach won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 22% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Peach played 24% better than Greg Tippings in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like James Peach actually played at a level of 15,487 and Greg Tippings at a level of 12,481. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.2% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Peach changes to +1.1% and Greg Tippings changes to -0.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Peach becomes +0.5% and for Greg Tippings becomes -0.4%.

Given James Peach's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 30% has been applied to his level change.

Given Greg Tippings's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 24% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Winter 2018' so the adjustment for James Peach is 0% and for Greg Tippings is 0%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Peach: 82%, Greg Tippings: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Peach: 81%, Greg Tippings: 89%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Greg Tippings: 12,579, level confidence: 89%.
Final level for James Peach: 15,324, level confidence: 81%.