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Russell Brandon v Doug Chandler (Thu 06 Dec 2018)

Match won by Russell Brandon. Result: 10-12,14-12,11-8,11-5.

Starting level for Russell Brandon: 2,155, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for Doug Chandler: 2,267, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Doug Chandler to win as he is currently playing 5% better than Russell Brandon.

Russell Brandon won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 24% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Russell Brandon played 25% better than Doug Chandler in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Russell Brandon actually played at a level of 2,469 and Doug Chandler at a level of 1,979. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 15% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Russell Brandon changes to +14% and Doug Chandler changes to -13%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Russell Brandon becomes +6.3% and for Doug Chandler becomes -5.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hampshire Mens League 2018/2019' so the adjustment for Russell Brandon is +4.7% and for Doug Chandler is -4.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Russell Brandon: 81%, Doug Chandler: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Russell Brandon: 71%, Doug Chandler: 75%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Russell Brandon: 2,253, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Doug Chandler: 2,172, level confidence: 75%.