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Doug Green v Doug Chandler (Fri 07 Dec 2018)

Match won by Doug Green. Result: 15-13,13-15,15-6,15-6.

Starting level for Doug Green: 1,883, level confidence: 89%. Set manually.
Starting level for Doug Chandler: 2,163, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Doug Chandler to win as he is currently playing 15% better than Doug Green.

Doug Green won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 45% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Doug Green played 32% better than Doug Chandler in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Doug Green actually played at a level of 2,315 and Doug Chandler at a level of 1,759. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 23% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Doug Green changes to +18% and Doug Chandler changes to -21%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Doug Green becomes +7.9% and for Doug Chandler becomes -8.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hampshire Vets League 2018/2019' so the adjustment for Doug Green is +5.9% and for Doug Chandler is -6.4%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Doug Chandler is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Doug Green: 94%, Doug Chandler: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Doug Green: 77%, Doug Chandler: 70%.

A final adjustment of +0.8% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Doug Green: 1,992, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Doug Chandler: 2,094, level confidence: 70%.