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Shehab Essam v Greg Lobban (Tue 04 Dec 2018)

Match won by Shehab Essam. Result: 11-7,11-8,10-12,11-8.

Starting level for Shehab Essam: 28,708, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Starting level for Greg Lobban: 39,457, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Greg Lobban to win as he is currently playing 37% better than Shehab Essam.

Shehab Essam won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 23% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Shehab Essam played 24% better than Greg Lobban in this match. An upset!

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Shehab Essam actually played at a level of 37,522 and Greg Lobban at a level of 30,188. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 31% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 26% and 26% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Shehab Essam changes to +25% and Greg Lobban changes to -26%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Shehab Essam becomes +5.4% and for Greg Lobban becomes -5.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Black Ball Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Shehab Essam: 92%, Greg Lobban: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Shehab Essam: 70%, Greg Lobban: 70%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Shehab Essam: 30,204, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Greg Lobban: 37,669, level confidence: 70%.