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Harry Falconer v Julian Tomlinson (Tue 04 Dec 2018)

Match won by Harry Falconer. Result: 11-3,11-9,11-4.

Starting level for Harry Falconer: 17,425, level confidence: 63%.
Starting level for Julian Tomlinson: 15,996, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Harry Falconer to win as he is currently playing 9% better than Julian Tomlinson.

Harry Falconer won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Harry Falconer played 106% better than Julian Tomlinson in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Harry Falconer actually played at a level of 23,977 and Julian Tomlinson at a level of 11,625. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 38% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Harry Falconer changes to +36% and Julian Tomlinson changes to -28%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Harry Falconer becomes +7.8% and for Julian Tomlinson becomes -6.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Grimsby Cleethorpes Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Harry Falconer is limited to +6.8% and Julian Tomlinson is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Harry Falconer: 79%, Julian Tomlinson: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Harry Falconer: 58%, Julian Tomlinson: 64%.

A final adjustment of +0.9% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Harry Falconer: 18,604, level confidence: 58%.
Final level for Julian Tomlinson: 15,506, level confidence: 64%.