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Mike Harris v James Peach (Tue 04 Dec 2018)

Match won by Mike Harris. Result: 11-8,11-8,11-7.

Starting level for Mike Harris: 19,154, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Starting level for James Peach: 16,455, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Mike Harris to win as he is currently playing 16% better than James Peach.

Mike Harris won all of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 43% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mike Harris played 47% better than James Peach in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mike Harris actually played at a level of 21,545 and James Peach at a level of 14,629. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 12% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mike Harris changes to +9.9% and James Peach changes to -12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mike Harris becomes +2.7% and for James Peach becomes -3.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Grimsby Cleethorpes Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mike Harris: 91%, James Peach: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mike Harris: 81%, James Peach: 75%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mike Harris: 19,680, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for James Peach: 15,945, level confidence: 75%.