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Harry Falconer v Ondrej Uherka (Wed 05 Dec 2018)

Match won by Harry Falconer. Result: 11-8,11-9,11-2.

Starting level for Harry Falconer: 18,630, level confidence: 57%.
Starting level for Ondrej Uherka: 14,888, level confidence: 66%.
Harry Falconer to win as he is currently playing 25% better than Ondrej Uherka.

Harry Falconer won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 74% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Harry Falconer played 74% better than Ondrej Uherka in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Harry Falconer actually played at a level of 21,948 and Ondrej Uherka at a level of 12,637. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 18% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 16% and 16% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Harry Falconer changes to +16% and Ondrej Uherka changes to -13%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Harry Falconer becomes +4% and for Ondrej Uherka becomes -3.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Grimsby Cleethorpes Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Harry Falconer: 76%, Ondrej Uherka: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Harry Falconer: 64%, Ondrej Uherka: 69%.

A final adjustment of +0.8% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Harry Falconer: 19,367, level confidence: 64%.
Final level for Ondrej Uherka: 14,590, level confidence: 69%.