Mike Harris v Brian Byrne (Wed 05 Dec 2018)
Match won by Mike Harris. Result: 6-11,11-5,5-11,11-9,11-9.
Starting level for
Mike Harris:
19,680, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Brian Byrne:
18,290, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Mike Harris to win as he is currently playing
8% better than Brian Byrne.
Mike Harris won 60% of the games and 49% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was worse by around 2% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mike Harris played
7% better than Brian Byrne in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mike Harris actually played at a level of
19,620 and Brian Byrne at a level of
18,346. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.3% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mike Harris changes to 0% and Brian Byrne changes to 0%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mike Harris becomes -0.1% and for Brian Byrne becomes 0%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Grimsby Cleethorpes Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mike Harris: 90%, Brian Byrne: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mike Harris: 89%, Brian Byrne: 89%.
Final level for Mike Harris:
19,655, level confidence: 89%.
Final level for Brian Byrne:
18,314, level confidence: 89%.