David Baillargeon v Charlie Johnson (Wed 05 Dec 2018)
Match won by David Baillargeon. Result: 11-4,8-11,11-3,11-2.
Starting level for
David Baillargeon:
21,995, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Charlie Johnson:
16,944, level confidence: 32%.
David Baillargeon to win as he is currently playing
30% better than Charlie Johnson.
David Baillargeon won 75% of the games and 67% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 105% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that David Baillargeon played
51% better than Charlie Johnson in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like David Baillargeon actually played at a level of
23,754 and Charlie Johnson at a level of
15,689. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 8% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 7% and 7% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for David Baillargeon changes to +2.9% and Charlie Johnson changes to -7%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for David Baillargeon becomes +1.2% and for Charlie Johnson becomes -2.2%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Securian Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. David Baillargeon: 88%, Charlie Johnson: 57%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. David Baillargeon: 82%, Charlie Johnson: 53%.
A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for David Baillargeon:
22,265, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Charlie Johnson:
16,576, level confidence: 53%.