David Baillargeon v Charlie Johnson (Wed 05 Dec 2018)
Match won by David Baillargeon. Result: 11-4,8-11,11-3,11-2.
Starting level for
David Baillargeon:
21,966, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Charlie Johnson:
16,951, level confidence: 32%.
David Baillargeon to win as he is currently playing
30% better than Charlie Johnson.
David Baillargeon won 75% of the games and 67% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 105% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that David Baillargeon played
51% better than Charlie Johnson in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like David Baillargeon actually played at a level of
23,743 and Charlie Johnson at a level of
15,682. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 8.1% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 7.1% and 7.1% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for David Baillargeon changes to +2.9% and Charlie Johnson changes to -7.1%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for David Baillargeon becomes +1.2% and for Charlie Johnson becomes -2.2%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Securian Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. David Baillargeon: 88%, Charlie Johnson: 57%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. David Baillargeon: 82%, Charlie Johnson: 53%.
Final level for David Baillargeon:
22,240, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Charlie Johnson:
16,579, level confidence: 53%.