Stuart Macgregor v Joseph White (Thu 06 Dec 2018)
Match won by Stuart Macgregor. Result: 11-7,11-7,11-8.
Starting level for
Stuart Macgregor:
17,453, level confidence: 86%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Joseph White:
9,654, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Stuart Macgregor to win as he is currently playing
81% better than Joseph White.
Stuart Macgregor won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Stuart Macgregor played
52% better than Joseph White in this match.
In this case, Stuart Macgregor played at level 15,226 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Stuart Macgregor would normally have been playing at level 15,834 (based on typical behaviour), Joseph White played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 4%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 3% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Stuart Macgregor changes to 0% and Joseph White changes to +3%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Stuart Macgregor becomes 0% and for Joseph White becomes +1.5%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Imet Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Stuart Macgregor: 93%, Joseph White: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Stuart Macgregor: 85%, Joseph White: 79%.
Final level for Stuart Macgregor:
17,453, level confidence: 85%.
Final level for Joseph White:
9,797, level confidence: 79%.