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Emyr Evans v Mike Harris (Thu 06 Dec 2018)

Match won by Emyr Evans. Result: 11-7,11-7,4-11,11-4.

Starting level for Emyr Evans: 23,333, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Mike Harris: 19,455, level confidence: 89%. Set manually.
Emyr Evans to win as he is currently playing 20% better than Mike Harris.

Emyr Evans won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 28% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Emyr Evans played 26% better than Mike Harris in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Emyr Evans actually played at a level of 23,902 and Mike Harris at a level of 18,992. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.4% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Emyr Evans changes to +2.2% and Mike Harris changes to -1.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Emyr Evans becomes +0.9% and for Mike Harris becomes -0.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Grimsby Cleethorpes Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Emyr Evans: 85%, Mike Harris: 94%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Emyr Evans: 83%, Mike Harris: 92%.

Final level for Emyr Evans: 23,551, level confidence: 83%.
Final level for Mike Harris: 19,306, level confidence: 92%.