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Oliviero Ventrice v Stuart Macgregor (Fri 07 Dec 2018)

Match won by Oliviero Ventrice. Result: 11-7,11-6,11-8.

Starting level for Oliviero Ventrice: 19,233, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Stuart Macgregor: 17,445, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Oliviero Ventrice to win as he is currently playing 10% better than Stuart Macgregor.

Oliviero Ventrice won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Oliviero Ventrice played 56% better than Stuart Macgregor in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Oliviero Ventrice actually played at a level of 22,910 and Stuart Macgregor at a level of 14,645. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 19% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Oliviero Ventrice changes to +18% and Stuart Macgregor changes to -16%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Oliviero Ventrice becomes +4.4% and for Stuart Macgregor becomes -4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Imet Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Oliviero Ventrice: 87%, Stuart Macgregor: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Oliviero Ventrice: 73%, Stuart Macgregor: 77%.

Final level for Oliviero Ventrice: 20,077, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Stuart Macgregor: 16,773, level confidence: 77%.