Oliviero Ventrice v Stuart Macgregor (Fri 07 Dec 2018)
Match won by Oliviero Ventrice. Result: 11-7,11-6,11-8.
Starting level for
Oliviero Ventrice:
19,233, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Stuart Macgregor:
17,445, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Oliviero Ventrice to win as he is currently playing
10% better than Stuart Macgregor.
Oliviero Ventrice won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Oliviero Ventrice played
56% better than Stuart Macgregor in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Oliviero Ventrice actually played at a level of
22,910 and Stuart Macgregor at a level of
14,645. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 19% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Oliviero Ventrice changes to +18% and Stuart Macgregor changes to -16%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Oliviero Ventrice becomes +4.4% and for Stuart Macgregor becomes -4%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Imet Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Oliviero Ventrice: 87%, Stuart Macgregor: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Oliviero Ventrice: 73%, Stuart Macgregor: 77%.
Final level for Oliviero Ventrice:
20,077, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Stuart Macgregor:
16,773, level confidence: 77%.