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Morgan Hibberd v Harry Falconer (Tue 11 Dec 2018)

Match won by Harry Falconer. Result: 2-11,11-13,4-11.

Starting level for Morgan Hibberd: 8,933, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Harry Falconer: 18,457, level confidence: 62%.
Harry Falconer to win as he is currently playing 107% better than Morgan Hibberd.

Harry Falconer won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Harry Falconer played 106% better than Morgan Hibberd in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Harry Falconer was taking it easy by anything up to 13%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 13,404 and 18,457 without affecting his level.

In this case, Harry Falconer played at level 18,391 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Morgan Hibberd is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Harry Falconer: 79%, Morgan Hibberd: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Harry Falconer: 79%, Morgan Hibberd: 84%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Morgan Hibberd: 8,920, level confidence: 84%.
Final level for Harry Falconer: 18,429, level confidence: 79%.